Showing posts with label Statistics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Statistics. Show all posts


One of the new stats

Big League Stew has been running a series on the new stats that are out there. This week the feature is on WPA and is titled Everything You Always Wanted to Know about WPA.

First of all -- what is WPA?
Win Probability Added. As Hardball Times's Dave Studeman has written, it's gone by a lot of different names. "Player Win Averages," "Player Game Percentage," "Win Expectancy," "Player's Win Value," etc. But WPA is the the most common name for it these days.

How they calculate WPA: Though the arithmetic can be a mother, Win Probability Added is one of the easiest of all the advanced stats to explain. Put simply, it's a measure of how much any game event contributes to the eventual outcome of the game, win or loss.

Or, as Fangraphs' David Appelman writes, "WPA is the difference in win expectancy (WE) between the start of the play and the end of the play." (For those of you who remember calculus, this means it's a marginal measure — it measures the difference in probability between two states. Feel free to use a Greek Delta symbol in your mind.)

So how much does that single in the second inning make it likelier that team will win? How much likelier is the win after the setup man got three crucial outs in the eightth? [sic]
I received a spreadsheet for Win Probability from one of the guys at Lookout Landing a couple of years ago, but never found the time to incorporate it into the blog. Maybe I should look at doing that in 2010?

Another question you may have....
What WPA is good for: WPA is good for telling you who deserves the game ball. WPA analysis is also good for storytelling. It gives you a statistical evidence that this was the turning point of the game, the most important play. WPA is a new-school stat in old-school garb — it tells you exactly what happened, and exactly how important it was.
Go read it all and be informed.


Data and Graphs and SCIENCE!

Put a bar graph and the words Midwest League in your post and you get a link.

This may come as a shock to some of you, but:
The different ages seemed to increase the walk rate as they got older, and overall the power went up, but like the strikeout rate the power rates are up and down from age to age.
Are you shocked...I know I am.

Seriously, though, go take a look.


Real statistical analysis

Not from me, of course. I was just checking the Baseball America sit to see if the MWL Top 20 had been released and spotted this from Matt Eddy at their Prospects Blog over there.

Minor League Averages 2009
Perhaps the most unique aspect of minor league baseball is the wide array of offensive environments. The hitter-friendly California League stands in stark contrast with the Florida State League, where runs are scarce and pitchers generally thrive. Both leagues operate at the high Class A level, but the average Cal League team this year scored nearly a run more per nine innings (0.95) than their FSL counterpart. That works out to 133 runs over the course of a 140-game season.

To put that in further perspective, consider that the FSL’s most productive team, Dunedin, would have ranked dead last in the Cal League with their 610 runs. But if we bolster their attack by that 133-run exchange rate, the Blue Jays would surge to fourth in the Cal League with 743 runs. And that doesn’t even take into account that because of the FSL’s myriad rainouts, Dunedin completed six fewer games than High Desert, the Cal League’s most offensive outfit. Furthermore, that doesn’t take into account the number of seven-inning contests, brought about by doubleheaders, played by Dunedin. We do know that Mavericks pitchers completed more than 90 additional innings (92 2/3 to be exact) than Dunedin hurlers.
Click the link for the whole table and the explanations, but here are MWL League averages
.256 .329 .373 4.67 8.5 20.1 .118 .316

And now, the Rattlers team totals in those categories*:

.236 .319 .346 3.52 10.4 4.1.
..110 .306..62..546

Explanation of terms:
• R/9 scales runs scored to nine innings, making no distinction between earned and unearned runs.

• The BB and SO columns figure walks and strikeouts per plate appearance. Walks do not include intentional passes.

• Isolated power (ISO) is the difference between slugging and average, separating extra bases and weighing them per at-bat.

• Balls in play average (BIP) figures the rate at which struck baseballs—excluding home runs—evade defenses and are scored as hits.

• The HR and RUNS categories are league averages for team home runs and team runs scored, providing a snapshot of the various offensive contexts.
*My math may be a bit off in there -- Hey, I was a broadcast major...twice!...So, if any of you math wizards can check my work that would be great.

Bonus odd fact...For years, I have been telling people that the Midwest League is a pitcher's league. Might have to rethink that:
But the one league comparison that seems to defy explanation occurs at the low Class A level, where the Midwest League proved to be a better run-scoring environment than the South Atlantic virtually across the board. In most years, the opposite is true—and dramatically so. (Take 2007, for example.) The average age of batters and pitchers in these two circuits is practically identical, so it’s not a matter of experience. Whatever it is—changing weather patterns, uneven distribution of talent, new ballparks—it merits further analysis.


Making an attempt

I did this on the radio last night with Player A and Player B and I pretty sure nobody listened...Yes, Mom...I know you did....but, I am doing this here to actually try to add in some perspective.

Player A, a supplemental 1st round pick, turned 19 in late in the season in which he put up these numbers in his first Midwest League season:

.267-11-72 and 8-for-12 in stolen bases in 130 games. Walked 33 times and struck out 124 times

Player B, a high first round pick, turned 19 in January before the season in which he put up these numbers in his first Midwest League season. A season that also happened to be his first as a professional:

.274-13-65 and 19-for-30 in stolen bases in 105 games. Walked 41 times and struck out 70 times.

Player C, a 3rd round pick, turned 19 in May of the season in which he put up these numbers in his first Midwest League season:

.276-6-45 and 8-for-13 in stolen bases in 107 games. Walked 44 times and struck out 96 times.

Player D, a highly thought of International signing, who turned "19" in February before the start of his first Midwest League season in which he put up these numbers:

.326-4-47 and 65-for-85 in stolen bases in 113 games. Walked 30 times and struck out 50 times.

Project away, kids.


This is a bloggy kind of thing...

even if it is a Cub farmhand.

Do you know how I know this is a big deal? I got a press release on it from someone who does not send out press releases unless he really, really has to send one out.

Here's another reason -- okay, well A reason -- to keep an eye on the Peoria @ Beloit game tonight.
Peoria Chiefs third baseman and top Chicago Cubs prospect Josh Vitters carries a unique streak into the Chiefs series finale at Beloit on Tuesday night. Vitters has collected three hits in four straight games and has homered in three straight. According to Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, only 18 Major League players have had three straight games of at least three hits and one home run since 1955.
Here is that list:
Hall of Famers Duke Snider (1955) and Dave Winfield (1983), likely Hall of Famer Ken Griffey Jr. (1994) and Hall of Fame candidates Fred McGriff (1994), Jose Canseco (1994), Larry Walker (1995) and Barry Bonds (2000). Others who have accomplished the feat and are still active in the Majors include current Cubs outfielder Alfonso Soriano (2005), Bill Hall (2006), Johnny Damon (2007), Carlos Lee (2003) and Evan Longoria (2008). Willie Horton (1965), Rico Carty (1967), Mike Greenwell (1988), Kelly Gruber (1990), Rondell White (1999) and Jeff DaVanon (2003) round out the list.
See. Bloggy.


A pointer to the stats

Here is the link to the season-ending stats for the Rattlers.

You can click on the headers and see who was the team leader in individual categories.

There is also a link at the top to take you back to the 2005, 2006, and 2007 seasons.

Have some fun with it.
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