Debating Society

Larry Stone has a column in the Seattle Times about how the off-season debate about trading or not trading Adam Jones to the the Baltimore Orioles is keeping things interesting in the Northwest.

As hot stove debates go, the one currently raging among Mariners fans is close to perfection.

So, without further ado, here's a heartfelt thank you to Adam Jones, Erik Bedard and that multitude of Seattle minor-league prospects who, perhaps unbeknownst to them, have enlivened what otherwise has been a largely uneventful offseason for the Mariners.

At issue, of course, is whether the Mariners should trade Jones and an amorphous, ever-changing group of potential future stars (or busts) for Bedard, an emerging ace for the Baltimore Orioles.

This imponderable is loads of fun to ponder. Delve into it long enough, and almost every aspect of baseball analysis comes into play: statistical breakdowns; how to quantify the importance of defense; the efficacy of predicting future performance; the salary structure of baseball; the pros and cons of playing to win now versus building for the future.

To cut the suspense, my position on making a deal for Bedard is a qualified yes — the qualification based first on just what, precisely, the final package sent to Baltimore for Bedard would end up being, and second, on what is general manager Bill Bavasi's plan to replace Jones in right field.

To the quick:

Any trade of prospects is rife with the potential for it to blow up in a team's face. But for every such instance, one can point to a corresponding trade where the so-called can't-miss prospects did indeed miss. Or, alternately, said prospects were so coveted by an organization that they refused to include them in any deal, only to never reap the benefits of those alleged phenoms (cough, cough, Ryan Anderson).

I don't expect Jones to be a bust. I think he will develop into a quality major-league player with a long and fruitful career. Torii Hunter-like, perhaps, or maybe even Jim Edmonds-esque. He could also be Ricky Ledee, Corey Patterson or Ruben Mateo — highly touted outfield busts — but I'd be surprised.

Whether Jones is ready to take the step to productivity in 2008 is a little murkier. Some growing pains are likely. Still, it would be difficult for the Mariners to give up on that kind of potential, especially considering that Jones is under club control for another six years, compared to two for Bedard.

I would admittedly feel better about this prospective deal if the Mariners locked up Bedard to a multiyear extension. But top-of-the-rotation pitchers come with a high price tag. The Mariners should swallow hard and include Jones.

Any number of names have been bandied about in the rumor mill as accompanying Jones to Baltimore. Brandon Morrow. Jeff Clement. Chris Tillman. Wladimir Balentien. Carlos Triunfel. Matt Tuiasosopo. Tony Butler. Et al.

All have tremendous upside. Some will likely make it big; others will likely be serviceable; a few are likely to make no impact at all. While minor-league numbers have proven to be indicative of major-league performance, any follower of player development will attest to the ultimate unpredictability of assessing how good a prospect will pan out to be.