Larry Stone: Hall of Fame voter

Seattle Times columnist Larry Stone has this entry today that is well worth the read.

Specter of drug abuse taints Hall voting

Back in more innocent times, Hall of Fame voting was one of the most joyful aspects of being a baseball writer.

I still remember the thrill of casting my first Hall of Fame vote, back in 1995, when I reached the requisite bench mark of being a 10-year member in the Baseball Writers' Association of America.

Sure, right from the start I agonized over names like Don Sutton and Tony Oliva and Jim Rice and Steve Garvey (the verdict was yea, nay, yea, nay, if I recall; a dozen "yeas" later, Rice is still around to confound voters, this being his 14th and penultimate crack at reaching the 75 percent mark for election).

One thing I had not fully anticipated, but should have, was just how many players straddled the border between immortality and close-but-no-induction.

While it is a true pleasure to coronate the no-brainers — Mike Schmidt back in 1995, and the George Bretts, Nolan Ryans and Ozzie Smiths in future years — the real chore was (and still is) deciding among the vast group of all-brainers.

Those are the borderline candidates, the ones who inspire the passionate barroom (and now chat-room) debates, and keep voters like me up at night agonizing over their qualifications.

I'm talking about not just Rice, who finds out today, when the 2008 Hall of Fame results are announced, if he finally gets to Cooperstown; but Jack Morris, Bert Blyleven, Andre Dawson, Goose Gossage, Dale Murphy, Lee Smith, Alan Trammell, Tommy John. It's the annual parade of migraine headaches that confronts a Hall voter.

But the new wrinkle, of course, the one that has knocked some of the unqualified joy out of the assignment, is the omnipresent specter of performance-enhancing drugs.

The usual names pop up here...McGwire, Sosa, and Palmeiro. Add in Bonds and Clemens and Stone is starting to get "the cold sweats already".

There is also the following development:

One other aspect facing the 21st-century voter, scarcely imaginable when I began this process 13 years ago, is the vast and vigilant army of Internet analysts, armed with new-wave statistics (who knew of win shares, VORP and EqA in the innocent '90s?) and poised to ridicule any voter who makes public a ballot that's lazily defended.

I don't mind the scrutiny, mind you; the Web watchdogs, on more than one occasion, have made me rethink my reasoning. They have even put forth arguments that have changed my mind. I voted for Tim Raines this year partly because of persuasive cases on his behalf on baseball sites.

In this column there is also a prediction:

When voting results are announced today, I predict that just one player will pass muster.

That would be the long-overdue coronation of Goose Gossage, poised to become the second ex-Mariner in the Hall. Just like No. 1, Gaylord Perry, Gossage's Seattle incarnation was short-lived and occurred well past his prime — a 36-game stint in 1994, at age 43, that ended (as did Goose's career) with the strike that wiped out the season in August.

Gossage's vote totals have been creeping ever closer to the 75 percent line, and he benefits this year from the fact that none of the new names on the ballot are definitive choices (Raines is the only one with a prayer), as were Tony Gwynn (97.6 percent of the votes) and Cal Ripken (98.53 percent) last year.

Such gaps historically tend to boost the chances of players who have been lingering close to election. That will no doubt be the hope of other holdovers who, like Gossage, warranted my vote: [Bert] Blyleven, [Jim] Rice, [Andre] Dawson, [Jack] Morris and [Lee] Smith (the latter barely passing my muster, perhaps for the final time; the anti-Smith zealots are starting to hit home).

Go check it out.