The 2007 Seattle Mariners do not appear to be any better on paper than they were a year ago - at least to the naked eye. We’ve sat here all winter watching the club throw millions of dollars at mediocre pitchers and ink conservative deals to shore up an offense that needed much more than shoring up.
So the 78-win version of the Mariners is back, with a few replacements. Things don’t look so good from afar, and there is truly nothing to be excited about in the Emerald City as far as wins and losses goes… or is there?
There are several projection formulas on the market these days, many of which have been developed by some pretty strong baseball minds. Zips and Marcel are two of the more known systems, and according to each, the Seattle Mariners aren’t going to be “so freakin’ bad” this season.
My questions? Zips? Marcel? They sound like the dog and a French mouse from the Weekly Reader.
But seriously...
The formulas project out the OPS (On Base + Slugging Percentage) of the hitters and the ERA of the pitchers.
Last year, the formulas had the M's winning between 83-85 games. They won 78. Last year's formulas also had JJ Putz with an ERA of 4.61. He wound up with an ERA of 2.30.
What do the formulas predict for Seattle this year?
If all goes as formulated, the Mariners are slated to win 86 games, according to the runs scored - runs prevented systems, but as you can see, the 2006 starting rotation was ALSO expected to put up an ERA of just under 4.5, and they sputtered their way to suckocrity. If this year’s rotation is just as bad, the M’s will have trouble getting past the 78 victories they mustered a year ago.
Me? This is all well, fun, and good, but I'll wait for them to play the games. But, follow the link to see the tables to see how the formulas work out the performances of individual players. Like Felix Hernandez with a 3.83 ERA?
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