12/23/2008

Never too late; Never too early

Patrick Ebert has put together a look back at the 2008 Brewer Draft and a look ahead to the 2009 Brewer Draft at Brewerfan.net.

It has been up for a few days, but it's not like this is late or anything. Also, I'll just be excerpting the hitters and the high school pitchers. For the rest just click on that first link.

The article begins with a look back at Jack Zduriencik and his previous drafts with Milwaukee before getting into the current Seattle General Manager's final draft with the Crew.
“Before the draft I felt that the two biggest weaknesses in the Brewers system were power bats and catching depth.”

This was my comment as part of this story a year ago after the team selected Matt LaPorta and Jonathan Lucroy with their first two picks. This year they needed only one pick to address both of those needs. While the team loaded up on pitching overall in the draft, they did use a few of their early picks on potential impact positional players.

1. (Draft round) Brett Lawrie, C
Did not play, signed 2009 contract
2b. Cutter Dykstra, CF/2B
.269/.406/.269 in 26 at-bats with Arizona
.271/.367/.438, 9 doubles, 5 home runs in 144 at-bats with Helena
3. Logan Schafer, CF
.240/.355/.560 in 25 at-bats with Helena
.276/.306/.370, 13 doubles, 2 triples in 181 at-bats with West Virginia
6. Jose Duran, 2B
.221/.284/.309, 4 doubles, 1 triple, 2 home runs in 136 at-bats with Helena
8. Erik Komatsu, RF
.321/.394/.538, 19 doubles, 4 triples, 11 home runs in 277 at-bats with Helena

Lawrie is a premium athlete and a potential impact slugger. Similar to the picks of Ryan Braun and Rickie Weeks in past years, Lawrie could climb quickly through the system thanks to his prowess at the plate. However, his development could be slowed if the Brewers are intent on grooming him as a catcher. Given the system's depth behind the plate, Lawrie and the entire organization may benefit from a quick and permanent move to another position, with second and third base, as well as the outfield, being possible destinations for him. He signed a 2009 contract after playing with the Canadian National Team in the Beijing Olympics, and his placement to open the 2009 season may indicate just how serious the Brewers are about his defensive future.

After Lawrie, the Brewers drafted an entire outfield, as Schafer, Dykstra and Komatsu could represent the Timber Rattlers outfield from left to right, and all three enjoyed success during their professional debuts.

Dykstra is the most dynamic of the three, profiling in a very similar fashion to his father, Lenny, with a hard-nosed, aggressive approach to the game. Komatsu has the most polished bat but also the most limited upside as a 5'10” left-handed swinger, while Schafer is a long strider that plays strong defense with some speed and power to the gaps. The Brewers did toy with the idea of trying Dykstra at second base during their fall instructional camp, and either Schafer and/or Komatsu could be aggressively promoted to Brevard County to open the 2009 season.
I highlighted the important part for Timber Rattler fans in that part above. I would italicize and put it in a larger font, but that's just overkill.
The Brewers aren't shy about taking high school pitchers with their early picks, although the past few years they have targeted more college arms after the first few rounds of the draft. Of the 23 pitchers the Brewers selected and signed, only seven hailed from the prep ranks, all of which were right-handed.

1s-a. Jake Odorizzi
3.48 ERA, 18 hits, 19:9 K:BB ratio in 20.2 innings with Arizona
2a. Seth Lintz
6.87 ERA, 22 hits, 26:16 K:BB ratio in 18.1 innings with Arizona
5. Maverick Lasker
Did not pitch, injury (back)
16. Stosh Wawrzasek
6.94 ERA, 15 hits, 12:7 K:BB ratio in 11.2 innings with Arizona
17. Damon Krestalude
3.15 ERA, 36 hits, 28:16 K:BB ratio in 34.1 innings with Arizona
18. Nicholas Bucci
7.36 ERA, 12 hits, 14:2 K:BB ratio in 11 innings with Arizona
19. Blake Billings
2.25 ERA, 10 hits, 15:1 K:BB ratio in 12 innings with Arizona

Odorizzi, Lintz and Lasker all have a very similar profile. All three are in the 6'2”, 180 pound range, they all are very good overall athletes that also excelled at the plate as hitters, and they all show easy arm strength with the potential for wicked breaking balls.

Odorizzi of course is the most promising of this trio as the highest pitcher the Brewers selected last June. Not only does he have the projectability and stuff to succeed, but he is also the most polished, with solid command of a well-rounded three-pitch repertoire (91-94 fastball that has touched 97, low-80s slider/slurve, changeup) that may allow him to open his first full professional season with Wisconsin.

We didn't get a taste for Lasker since he had a stress fracture in his back, but he, Lintz, Wawrzasek, Krestalude, Bucci and Billings should all be a part of a very talented Helena staff next summer.

Lintz didn't post a particularly nice looking ERA, but he did strikeout more than his fair share of batters. Krestalude and Billings were solid across the board, as Billings arguably had the finest debut of any pitcher drafted this past year (with the usual small sample warning) while also having the most projectable build. Stosh and Bucci, like Lintz, showed their propensity to miss bats despite posting ugly ERAs.

See above.

Quick peek ahead to the 2009 draft:

Best Guess

Next June the Brewers will own the 25th overall selection, although it wouldn't be surprising to see the team forfeit that pick by signing a prominent Type A free agent this offseason. Although with two prominent Type A free agents-to-be of their own about to hit the market in CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets, it's likely the team stands to gain a few extra picks along the way.

Of course trying to guess who the Brewers, or any team for that matter, is a waste of time this far out. Trying to figure out who Jack Zduriencik would draft even days before

the draft was never easy, and now it will be even more difficult to predict since the team will be turning to a new scouting director to acquire talent via the draft.

The Brewers have taken bats with their first pick the past two years, although they did buck a significant trend under Zduriencik's watch by taking not one college pitcher before the third round, but two. As noted above, the numbers of pitchers the Brewers selected will probably be enough to fill two levels with talent, so don't be surprised if the team takes a lot of bats early next year, even if the talent depth seems to favor the pitchers, to help fill the rookie clubs' lineups.

Those are some lengthy excerpts, but there is a lot more at the link.

2 comments:

THE KID said...

Is it too early to get excited?

The talent that could be here come April "reads" well.

Chris said...

Like the title of the post goes...Never too late; Never too early.

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