A look from Between the Green Pillars

But, the post at this SportsBubbler.com blog isn't about the Brewers playoff run.

Now For Something Completely Different...

Playoff euphoria has taken over the city of Milwaukee.

It's taken over this writer.

Still, I think it's time to take a step back and look at something that was in the news last week, the fact that the Milwaukee Brewers low class A ball team will be the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers for the next four years.

On one hand, this is great for the franchise. It makes it easier for those of us living in the Milwaukee area to get out and see the younger players in the Brewer system earlier. It also helps deepen the connection between the Fox River Valley and the major league club in Milwaukee, which can't hurt ticket sales.

There is one major downside, however. The pitchers who will be coming through Appleton for long stints will by and large be on the young side, as Low A is where pitchers fresh from high school tend to go the year after they're drafted. Young pitchers are particularly susceptible to injury and pitching in cold weather is often cited as a particularly dangerous practice to engage in.

That second link goes to a Baseball Prospectus article. There's a chart there and everything so, it's science!

Sorry, that was a little too flip.

I'm just skimming that BP article -- because, well I have to be to work in a little bit -- and did not see anything in there about cold weather being cited. Go read it if you have time, but here is the conclusion.

We have already discussed how the first of the three physiological elements of injury risk--the intrinsic strain that the pitching motion requires--is of greatest concern for very young pitchers. Indeed, based on a limited sample of MLB injury data reviewed by Under the Knife, pitchers under the age of 24 are especially likely to experience injuries to their elbows and shoulders, those body parts that are put under the greatest stress by the pitching motion. However, it may be more proper to associate the pitching motion itself with the underlying risk of injury observed among pitchers of all ages.

The relationship between age and fatigue is more ambiguous. Our attrition rate study focused only on performance in the most recent season, rather than fatigue accumulated over the course of the career. However, from what specific data we do have available, it appears that fatigue-based injuries are more likely to afflict older pitchers. According to MLB data, while the risk of tears and fractures decreases with age, the risk of strain and inflammation increases. So too does the risk of injury to body parts that are secondary to a pitcher's motion, such as his back, knee, and hamstrings. Fatigue-based injuries such as these may account for the gradual slope upward in injury risk after the age of 25.

It is the final factor--mechanics--that may be responsible for the high incidence of injuries among very young pitchers. It is likely that pitchers with inherently poor mechanics are weeded out very early in their careers. Our attrition rate data suggest that injury risk is very high even for 21- and 22- year-olds who have pitched successfully in the major leagues. One can imagine that it is higher still for pitchers who have not yet turned professional, and for pitchers whose mechanics are sufficiently poor that they do not develop the command necessary to reach the major leagues at all.

There is no ready statistical metric to evaluate a pitcher's mechanics, and even case-by-case observation can obscure the physiology unique to each pitcher. Thus, the most powerful measure of the efficiency of a pitcher's motion may simply be the passage of time without his encountering serious injury. The so-called injury nexus does appear to be a real phenomenon, but it occurs before the age of 23, a younger age than some previous studies have suggested.

The writer at BtGP looks at a little data and...

Of course no one can say for certain that this will cause any problems. It's not like the Brewers moving their Low A team from a Wisconsin locale to a warmer climate (Beloit to West Virginia) a few years ago led to a noticeable decrease in injuries to pitchers in the system, at least on the surface. So maybe this will all come to nothing in the long run. Young pitchers do tend to get hurt in general, so it's not really going to be possible to pin point injuries as "weather related."

With the success the Brewers have had developing players in general, it seems reasonable to assume they considered all factors and made this decision with open eyes and decided the risk was worth the potential reward. Still, with top flight and fresh from high school pitching prospects like Jake Odorizzi and Seth Linz likely ticketed for the Rattlers early next season, there is good reason to be at least a little concerned here.

Emphasis added.

Let me just wrap this up with an observation*. I don't know the Brewers player development people. But, if there was anything in a pitcher in the Mariner organization that even hinted at arm problems -- be it on a 40 degree night in April or an 80 degree night in August -- that pitcher would either be shutdown or things would be taken very easy with him.

There are pitch limits in games, but there were also innings limits in seasons.

Teams invest a lot of money on young pitchers and I can't see the Brewers making a kid throwing a 9-inning complete game in April. The Brewers, heck every team, will be very careful with their prospects, but very careful with their pitching prospects.

Besides, the way this off-season has started in Appleton, it's going to be the warmest April ever when Opening Day 2009 rolls around.

*-Full disclosure for those of you new to the blog. The author of Rattler Radio is an employee of the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers.