Let's start with Jay: Halman Tops BA's 10 M's Prospects
I'm honestly quite surprised to see Halman up there as high as he is, because for all his physical tools, he has awful plate discipline that hasn't really shown any clear signs of improving. I really thought Triunfel would head it, with a chance of Aumont or Saunders, but we do have Matt Eddy making the list instead of Jim Callis, who usually does it.Dave. You're up next: Baseball America On The M’s
They have Halman #1. This is just really hard to justify, honestly, and I say this as a guy who has consistently been one of Halman’s biggest boosters. There’s no doubt that he’s got some serious power, and his raw physical skills are terrific. He’s also improved by leaps and bounds in the past year, and holding his own in Double-A at age 20 is impressive.
But the characterization of his pitch recognition as “below average” is in the running for the greatest understatement of all time. The list of good major league hitters who have succeeded with the approach Halman employs at the plate is Alfonso Soriano. There’s no doubt the two have similarities, but Soriano is the success story out of guys with this skillset. Without a pretty significant step forward in his approach at the plate, Juan Encarnacion is a much more likely development path, and it’s not like we can ignore the Reggie Abercrombie-type busts either.
Halman has star potential, but the risk is enormous, and the odds he fulfills it are very long. Making Halman the #1 prospect seems to be focusing too much on upside.
Here is a bit on #6 and #7 on the list. These players may be heading to Clinton for 2009.
At #6 and #7, they go young with Mario Martinez and Jhardmidy DeJesus. Both good talents, both a very long way from the majors. I don’t see a scenario where you can justify putting either ahead of Tui right now, and I’ve never been a big Tui fan. But he’s 90% of the upside and a step away from the majors. There’s a lot less projection to do with Tui, and the difference in potential isn’t big enough to put the two kids ahead of him, I don’t think.
Jason? What have you?
It's prospect season, and as I continue finishing up my own top 50 for the M's, two outlets already have their rankings published.
Baseball America has their Seattle Mariners Top 10 out now, and MILB.com has finished their Top 50.
And of course, I take issue with both lists.
First, the M's Top 10, where BA has Greg Halman No. 1. There's really only one legit star talent in the system that doesn't come with red-flag risks, and it's not Halman. That player is Carlos Triunfel.
They also rank Michael Saunders No. 2, which is a few spots too high for me. Saunders is a high-probability prospect, but he's a medium reward, too.
I'm not quite as high on Mario Martinez as Baseball America is, as they have him at No. 7, ahead of Jharmidy De Jesus....
Minor League Baseball dot com's list is a total joke, and I don't mean to bash Jonathan Mayo and Lisa Winston, whom I understand are the authors of the list, but Cameron Maybin No. 5, Rick Porcello No. 4 and Madison Bumgarner ranked ahead of both Neftali Perez and Chris Tillman, who are much closer to the big leagues with similar or better pure stuff?
Whatever.
Click that link to Prospect Insider to find out what Jason thinks about that MiLB.com list.
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