First, a little history:
Adam Jones was drafted by the Seattle Mariners in the supplemental first round in 2003 out of high school in San Diego, 37th overall. For awhile in high school he was better regarded as a pitcher due to a 92 MPH fastball, but the Mariners decided to use him as a shortstop. He was considered highly athletic but very raw. He hit .284/.368/.349 in rookie ball, showing very little power. I gave him a Grade C+, rating him as raw but promising.Jones moved up to Wisconsin in the Midwest League in 2004. He hit .267/.314/.404 with 11 homers, 33 walks, and 124 strikeouts. Defensively he showed a strong arm and the potential to be excellent at shortstop with more experience. Offensively he showed some power development, but his approach was very erratic. I wrote in the book: "Jones has bat speed, but his approach is very inconsistent, even from at-bat to at-bat.. . in one game I saw, he worked the count very effectively in one at-bat, then was completely helpless and overaggressive the rest of the game." I gave him another Grade C+.
Those grades went up over the next few seasons. There are a few projections (the Me is Sickels, btw) near the end of the post. But, I'll just share two. You're going to need to follow the link to see them all.
Weighted Mean PECOTA: .273/.333/.468
Me: .259/.321/.449
This is the Sickels take on Jones:
I like Jones in the long run. The increase in power has been notable, his defense is a big plus, and he's shown a great work ethic and attitude in making these improvements. But he still has a strike zone control issue, and at this point I will be surprised if he does much in the batting average and OBP department right now. I suspect he will be rather erratic this year, improve slightly in '09, then break out in '10. One key will be getting consistent playing time, not getting jerked around by an impatient manager. They need to let him play and play a lot so he can work his problems out.
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