From the Top: Measuring Which Farm Systems Are Closest To The Majors
In baseball, a team with a farm system in which the top prospects are at the Triple-A and Double-A levels means that team likely has several assets with a high degree of certainty. The more plate appearances a hitter has or batters a pitcher has faced in his professional career, the more reliable data points we have to forecast his future.
A prospect in Triple-A may have a track record of 2,000 minor league plate appearances, including several hundred in the highest levels of the minor leagues. A prospect in the short-season leagues or low Class A, meanwhile, has a much more limited body of work available to evaluate, and it is within the context of the lowest levels of the minors, where weaknesses like poor pitch recognition, an aluminum bat swing or a fringy array of pitches is less likely to be exploited.
Having more plate appearances or batters faced is helpful both in terms of being able to analyze a player’s statistics and by allowing scouts more time to evaluate a player’s tools and skills, to asses his development and to create a better forecast for the player’s future through his observations.
All that playing time doesn’t necessarily make the player more valuable; rather, it increases the certainty with which we can evaluate a player and forecast his future. That doesn’t mean Triple-A Red Sox outfielder Brandon Moss is a better prospect than low Class A Blue Jays outfielder Travis Snider because Moss is closer to the majors—it means there is more certainty to which we can predict the value that Moss will provide to a major league team.
Badler goes through his methodology for his rankings:
It starts with every team's Top 10 Prospects (as rated by BA, of course).
Then: Level Score (5 points for AAA, 4 points for AA, etc); Ranking Score (10 points to #1 prospect, etc.); Individual CTM Score (Jack Bauer is not involved. Just multiply a players level score by his ranking score); Team CTM Score (Add up individual CTM scores and divide by 55...it makes mathematical sense...trust me). There are a few additional tweaks to the formula. Just read the whole post.
Oh, almost forgot, CTM = Close to the Majors
After all of this, it is revealed that the Los Angeles Dodgers are the system closest to the majors with a score of 3.89.
The Mariners check in with a 3.31 which is #12 on the list. I'll try to recreate that score here by showing the work. Columns below go Rank, Player, Ranking Score, Level Score, Individual CTM
2. Phillippe Aumont...........9.........0..........0
3. Chris Tillman..................8........3.........24
4. Carlos Triunfel................7........3.........21
5. Wladimir Balentien........6.........5........30
6. Michael Saunders..........5.........4.........20
7. Juan Ramirez.................4.........1............4
8. Mark Lowe.....................3.........5.........15
9. Ryan Rowland-Smith...2.........5..........10
10. Matt Tuiasosopo.........1.........4.............4
Adding up the Individual CTM Scores = 178
Divide by 55...
Team CTM Score = 3.24
Close enough? He may have done this after the trade, which would take Tillman out and everyone else moves up one, the #11 prospect moves up to #10, and a train leaving Chicago at 5pm traveling 95 mph....
Math. It can be your friend and it can be your enemy.
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