2/10/2008

Did something happen?

Lots of people with opinions on the five-for-one deal the Mariners pulled off with the Orioles. Seattle gets pitcher Erik Bedard. Baltimore gets Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Tony Butler, Chris Tillman, and Kam Mickolio.

Here is Baseball America's on Bedard and the three ex-Rattlers:
Bedard's stuff is unquestionable. With a fastball that sits in the low 90s and a plus-plus curveball, his arsenal is more than potent enough to combat lefties and righties. Detractors point to the fact that despite Bedard's age, he has yet to pitch 200 innings in a season—though he did make 33 starts in 2006. He's also a Tommy John survivor, having had the surgery in 2002. To his credit, he recovered quickly from the procedure and made it to the big leagues for good to begin the 2004 season. Right out of the gate, Bedard showed very strong strikeout rates, but achieved elite status only in the last two seasons as he's slashed his walk rate, from 4.7 per nine as a rookie down to 2.8 last season.

Jones had the kind of offensive breakout that seemed all but inevitable. With a year in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League under his belt, Jones showed increased power output in 2007, as he clubbed two home runs in a game four times during the season and finished with 25 in 101 games. He also ranked third in the league with a .586 slugging percentage. A supplemental first-round pick in 2003 from a San Diego high school, Jones offers excellent range in center and a strong arm he used to record 12 assists. Improved plate coverage and discipline, as much as anything, contributed to his .314/.382/.586 averages with Tacoma. Though he's an above-average runner, Jones' speed is better suited to covering ground in center and to taking extra bases than it is to stealing bases.

Seattle bumped the 19-year-old Tillman to high Class A High Desert after just eight low Class A starts. He struggled initially as he got used to more advanced California League competition and an unforgiving home park, but went 5-4, 4.75 with 89 strikeouts in 78 innings in the second half. A 2006 second-round pick from a California high school, Tillman attacks hitters with a 91-94 mph fastball and an 11-to-5 curveball, showing advanced feel for a young hurler. He's 6-foot-5 with a clean delivery, but while he shows aptitude for a changeup, it's a third pitch. Tillman went 7-11, 4.84 overall last season with 139-61 K-BB in 136 innings for High Desert and low Class A Wisconsin.

The Mariners landed Butler one round after they selected Tillman in the 2006 draft, and both now head to Baltimore. Butler touched 90 mph toward the end of his senior year at Oak Creek (Wis.) High, and he breezed through the short-season Northwest League in his 2006 debut. Though he didn't live up to expectations in 2007, going 4-7, 4.75 with 73-46 K-BB for Wisconsin and twice spending time on the disabled list with a dead arm, Butler is a physical lefty with quality stuff. His above-average 88-92 mph four-seam fastball features late life, and he also can buckle knees with his curveball. He has feel for a changeup with late fade and deception. Butler's arm action is not fluid, which provides deception but also puts stress on his shoulder and makes it difficult to maintain velocity. His fastball velocity jumped to the 94-95 mph range prior to the '06 draft, leading him to rank third on BA's Mariners Top 30 entering 2007, but he didn't throw that hard in his first full season.
Their quick take on the trade:
Though Bedard has two years remaining until he qualifies for free agency, his situation with Baltimore became untenable this offseason when the Orioles refused to cave in to his demands for a trade (immediately, anyway) or long-term deal. He earned $3.4 million last season and while he'll still be quite affordable, the Orioles, who do not project to be contenders this year, did well to maximize Bedard's trade value this winter, rather than sitting on him a year. Perhaps history was Baltimore's guide. They traded their shortstop Tejada earlier in the offseason, but only after passing on potentially more lucrative offers for his services in 2006.

That Seattle was willing to part with two of their very best young talents in Jones and Tillman and three other quality arms states, unequivocally, that they think they can hang with the Angels in the West and rub shoulders with the powers in the East and Central for the Wild Card. The Mariners picked up free agent Brad Wilkerson last week to offset the loss of Jones in right field, but they'll need other hitters to step up if they're to realize their playoff dreams.

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