PECOTAs

If you would like to peer into the belly of the sabermatricians, head over to USS Mariner and get yourself some PECOTA courtesy of DMZ by way of Baseball Prospectus.

When I think Pecota, I think Bill Pecota.

But, PECOTA stands for:

P...layer
E...mpirical
C...omparison
and
O...ptimization
T...est
A...lgorigthm

Did I give off a The Man from U.N.C.L.E. vibe with that? It's what I was going for.

This is a way to try predicting what kind of season a baseball player is going to have. BP is a subscription site and DMZ doesn't spill too many beans (or numbers in this case). But, there are a few lines regarding some ex-Rattlers.

* Jones’s 2008 puts him at about +2 wins over a replacement player, and his comps are not qhat I’d expected: Steve Hosey, Chet Lemon, Larry Hisle, and Jack Clark

* Jones’ upside, which is a measure of his potential over the next five years, is 198. That’s the 19th-highest for hitters in all of baseball

* It’s just behind BJ Upton and ahead of Curtis Granderson

* Clement comes off better than I thought he might

* Balentien’s line as a major leaguer is bad

* Progress for Felix

* Little bit of regression for Putz

I tend to take some of these projections with a shaker of salt. Not only because I heard that a lot of sodium is good for you....but also because of this line from DMZ about a certain outfielder for Seattle...

* PECOTA still hates Ichiro. I look forward to the annual “you know, I think this year it might be right” post.

I'm guessing that PECOTA has missed on predicting Ichiro's seasons...big.